AUSTRALIA'S two-speed economy, which has the resource-rich states of Western
Australia and Queensland, dramatically outperforming the southern manufacturing
states, has just got worse, or better, depending on which side of the border
you sit.
The reason, and
this takes a bit of explaining, Is because we appear to be avoiding an outbreak
of Dutch Disease.
Unknown to 99.99
per cent of WA Business News readers, Dutch Disease is not something
which attacks elm trees (that's Dutch elm disease).
Dutch Disease, in
its purest form, is a foreign exchange crisis experienced in a country which
suddenly discovers a treasure trove of resources - and suffers a soaring
currency which destroys its manufacturing sector.
It got its name
after the
Quite simply, we are having the best of all worlds and it
really has reached the "pinch me, am I alive?" phase of the greatest
boom we have ever seen.
What we're
watching is high world mineral and oil prices drive WA's trade performance through the roof. Last year, WA's numbers revealed
a trade surplus of $28.3 billion - while the rest of the country posted a trade
deficit of $17.1 billion.
If WA was an
independent country, and if WA had its own currency, the full benefits of the
trade surplus, and new investment being attracted by high commodity prices,
would be lost. The 'WA dollar' would be soaring in value against other
currencies, especially the US dollar, slashing mineral sales profits (as
reported in "WA dollars') and sharply reducing new project investment.
As you may have noticed there is no 'WA dollar'. We are still using the South
Pacific Peso {also known as the Australian dollar) and it is failing in value
because the big manufacturing states of NSW,
There are a number
of lessons from this non-outbreak of Dutch Disease.
Firstly, it is the single most brilliant
reason to get the last of the secessionists to shut up. Being part of
Secondly, there's
no obvious change ahead - and that means the good times just keep on rolling,
and the "what if it continues" question raised recently by Briefcase
becomes even more pertinent.
What if the boom
lasts longer (much longer) than anyone had previously thought possible? Apart
from the obvious winners, such as home and share portfolio owners, there are
downsides.
First home buyers
are being saddled with enormous loads of debt and government services, as
mentioned before, are at breaking point now.
But if the dollar
remains low and if commodity prices stay high, the outlook for WA is quite
remarkable.
There is another
downside to all this good news. The boom is creating a classic speculative
bubble with hot money from Sydney and Melbourne pouring into the WA property
market as everyone else in the country catches on to the fact that we are
having our cake (high commodity prices) and eating it (low dollar).